Leila Eamen

Leila Eamen

Postdoctoral Research Fellow at Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan

Talks and presentations

A Spatially Integrated Hydro-economic Modelling Framework for Water Allocation in Transboundary River Basins: Application to the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

September 15, 2020

Conference Talk, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) Conference, Belgium, Online

Abstract: Allocating limited available water resources among competing water uses is complicated in large transboundary river basins, where water resources are governed by multiple jurisdictions, and water allocation decisions typically affect a multitude of vested and emerging economic water interests. To support efficient and sustainable allocation of the limited water resources at transboundary scale, a hydro-economic modelling framework is required that integrates the appropriate engineering-based water management modelling approach with a macro-economic modelling framework that accounts for the relevant cross-sectoral and cross-regional interdependencies. Accordingly, the present study proposes a spatially integrated hydro-economic modelling framework consisting of an inter-regional economic supply-side input-output model and a water resources system model developed in the MODSIM-Decision Support System (DSS) platform. This framework allows us to evaluate the direct and indirect economic impacts of climate-change-induced water shortages in various sectors at different scales, namely the provincial, sub-basin, and the entire river basin level. This framework is applied to the transboundary Saskatchewan River Basin in Canada. This river basin encompasses three Canadian provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Due to extensive developments, upstream Alberta experiences a water over-allocation challenge, while downstream Saskatchewan is planning for new developments based on the unused amount of its entitled water from this river. By stress testing of the integrated model, we assess the sensitivity of different sectors/sub-basins to changes in water supply. Results reveal that the economy of this river basin is most sensitive to the changes in water supply to the “Mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction” sector. The results also show that the integrated model accounts for the interconnectedness between sectors and sub-basins. The findings can inform decision making around water supply re-prioritization and re-allocation, based on the economic sensitivities to water shortages.

The Economic Response to Water Availability due to Climate and Policy Change in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

May 15, 2019

Conference Talk, Global Water Futures Second Annual Meeting, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

Abstract: The Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) has been facing water allocation issues, such as the over-allocation of water in Alberta, that intensify competition among different water users due to the impacts of climate change on the amount of available water. Consequently, efficient water allocation among competing users becomes more challenging for decision makers. Under such circumstances, assessing the economic impacts of different water availability scenarios and alternative water allocation policies helps identify the most efficient policy options in the face of climate change induced water shortage. However, in the case of multi-jurisdictional river basins, such as SaskRB, evaluating these impacts in an integrated manner across the entire river basin is essential to identify the most promising water allocation policies. Despite the importance of adopting an integrated approach in evaluating the economic impacts of different water availability and policy options, none of the previous studies of the SaskRB have considered the entire river basin as an integrated system. Mainly focused on one sub-basin (e.g., the South Saskatchewan River Basin) or a province (e.g., Alberta), these studies failed to evaluate the impacts of climate change or alternative policy options on the economy of the SaskRB as a whole. To fill this gap in the literature, we aim to assess the economic impacts of different water availability options in the SaskRB due to climate and policy change on not only sub-basins and provinces that share this river basin but also the entire river basin as an integrated system. In this study, we developed an inter-regional Supply-side Input-Output modelling framework for the SaskRB to evaluate the direct and indirect economic impacts of different water availability options under climate and policy change conditions. Unlike previous studies that adhered only to administrative (e.g., provinces) or hydrological (e.g., sub-basins) boundaries, this study combines these boundaries to examine the impacts of water availability under climate and policy change on the economy of both provinces and sub-basins in the SaskRB. We apply this model to investigate the economic response of the SaskRB to two different water availability scenarios. In the first scenario, we assume that reduction in available water due to climate change is uniformly imposed on all industrial sectors, while in the second scenario, we consider a number of policy options to mitigate the economic impacts of this water shortage in the SaskRB. Findings of this study show that adopting appropriate water allocation policies, such as prioritizing water demand of different sectors, using alternative water sources (e.g., groundwater or saline water), and water reuse helps mitigate the economic impacts of a shortage in water availability. Results reveal that by adopting these policy options, the provincial GDP can be improved by between 40 and 60 percent, and GDP losses in the SaskRB can be reduced by almost 50 percent.

Developing a Hydro-economic Model for the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

March 28, 2019

Conference Talk, SENS Research Symposium, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada

Abstract: Efficiently allocating limited water resources among competing users is anticipated to become more crucial due to climate change and population growth, particularly in large and multi-jurisdictional river basins like the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). In such circumstances, proper integrated modelling methods such as hydro-economic approach will be required to help allocate water resources among competing users more efficiently. Existing hydro-economic studies in the SaskRB have primarily focused on one part of the river basin or adhered to administrative boundaries instead of hydrological boundaries. Thus, they failed to evaluate the impacts of climate change or alternative water allocation strategies on other parts of the river basin in an integrated approach. To address the need for a basin-wide hydro-economic model in the SaskRB, this research as one of the very first attempts aims to develop an inter-regional hydro-economic model that can assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of various water allocation strategies under climate and policy change not only on each of the provinces that share the SaskRB but also on the basin as an integrated system. We applied this modelling framework to the SaskRB to investigate the economic impacts of two water supply restriction scenarios due to climate and policy change. Findings of this study revealed that in the face of climate-induced water shortage, the economic losses could be reduced by almost 50% by adopting appropriate management practices such as prioritizing water allocation, using substitutional water resources and water re-use technologies.

An Evaluation of Current and Future Water Allocation Strategies in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

August 14, 2018

Conference Talk, International Conference of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID), Saskatoon, Canada

Abstract: Overexploitation of water resources and degrading their quality by Human-driven activities has reduced the amount of available water in many regions. Population growth and their increasing demand intensify the competition among users for more water. Under such circumstances, allocating scarce water resources in an efficient manner among the competing users becomes more controversial. This challenge is more critical in multi-jurisdictional basins like the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). Hence, a proper understanding of the impacts of existing and future water allocation strategies can help to allocate the limited water resources more efficiently. In the SaskRB, water has been allocated through the licenses that are mostly issued on a “first in time, first in right” basis. In this study, we focus on Alberta and Saskatchewan as the two main provinces that share the Saskatchewan River Basin. Upstream Alberta is facing a challenge of water over-allocation due to extensive agricultural and industrial developments. Meanwhile, downstream Saskatchewan has not yet used the total amount of water it has claimed and is entitled to. Thus, the Saskatchewan province is planning for new developments that demand more water from the South Saskatchewan River.
Therefore, in this presentation, we aim to evaluate the existing water allocation system and assess the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies in the Saskatchewan River Basin. Within this context, first, we analyze water allocation and actual withdrawal data in different sectors for the period 2005 to 2016 in the SaskRB to examine the current status of water use in the basin. A GIS data frame is also developed by employing the ArcGIS platform to study the spatial distribution of different water users in sub-basins of the SaskRB. Second, we employ an Input-Output hydro-economic model to study the economic impacts of the existing and alternative future water allocation strategies on the economy of the SaskRB. The Input-Output model is an analytical framework developed based on the Leontief Input-Output model and the Canadian Input-Output tables for the year 2014. This model uses inter-industry relationships in each province to estimate the changes caused by different water allocations. We couple this model with a water resources system model already developed within the MODSIM-DSS framework for the SaskRB that provides us with alternative future water allocation scenarios. Our results show that during the study period, total annual water withdrawals from the surface water resources in Alberta and Saskatchewan did not exceed 51 and 30 percent of the allocated amount through the licenses, respectively. Results also demonstrate that the amount of agricultural water withdrawal from the surface water resources in Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces had more fluctuations (as expected), compared with the other sectors. Moreover, this study reveals that in some of the sub-basins, the ratio of water withdrawals to the entitled water has changed considerably over time. With the existing water allocation strategy, agriculture is the third and 17th biggest contributor to the provincial gross domestic product in Saskatchewan and Alberta provinces, respectively. We evaluate and report how the economy of the region might change under different future water allocation scenarios.

An Evaluation of Current and Future Water Allocation Strategies in the Saskatchewan River Basin, Canada

June 05, 2018

Conference Talk, Global Water Futures First Annual Science Meeting, University of McMaster, Hamilton, Canada"

Abstract: Competition among water users for limited water resources has been intensified due to growing water demands and decreasing available water in many regions. Under these circumstances, allocating water among competing users efficiently becomes more controversial, particularly in large and multi-jurisdictional basins like the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). In the SaskRB, licenses have been issued to allocate water on the “first in time, first in right” basis. In this study, we focus on Alberta and Saskatchewan as the two main provinces that share the Saskatchewan River Basin. Upstream Alberta is facing a challenge of water over-allocation due to extensive developments. Meanwhile, downstream Saskatchewan has not yet used the total amount of water it has claimed and is entitled to. Thus, the Saskatchewan province is planning for new developments that demand more water from the South Saskatchewan River. Therefore, in this presentation, we aim to evaluate the existing water allocation system and assess the economic impacts of alternative water allocation strategies in the Saskatchewan River Basin. Within this context, first, we analyze water allocation and actual withdrawal data in different sectors for the period 2005 to 2016 in the SaskRB to examine the current status of water use in the basin. A GIS data frame is also developed by employing the ArcGIS platform to study the spatial distribution of different water users in sub-basins of the SaskRB. Second, we employ an Input-Output hydro-economic model to study the economic impacts of the existing and alternative future water allocation strategies on the economy of the SaskRB. The Input-Output model is an analytical framework developed based on the Leontief Input-Output model and the Canadian Input-Output tables for the year 2014. This model uses inter-industry relationships in each province to estimate the changes caused by different water allocation strategies. We couple this model with a water resources system model already developed within the MODSIM-DSS framework for the SaskRB that provides us with alternative future water allocation scenarios. Results of our study show that from 2005 to 2016, total annual water withdrawals from the surface water resources in Alberta and Saskatchewan did not exceed 51 and 30 percent of the allocated amount through the licenses, respectively. This study also demonstrates that the amount of agricultural water withdrawal from the surface water resources in Alberta and Saskatchewan provinces had more fluctuations (as expected), compared with the other sectors. Moreover, results indicate that in some of the sub-basins, the ratio of water withdrawals to the entitled water has changed considerably over time. With the existing water allocation strategy, agriculture is the third and 17th biggest contributor to the provincial gross domestic product in Saskatchewan and Alberta provinces, respectively. We evaluate and report how the economy of the region might change under different future water allocation scenarios.